You've heard the predictions for what happens if the country goes over the "fiscal cliff": The economy will shrink, nervous consumers will stop spending, and the stock market will plunge.
But those doomsday predictions are overblown, some professional investors say.
Even if Congress and the White House can't reach a deal, the higher taxes and lower government spending that would follow would kick in only gradually. A recession is not guaranteed.
What's much more important to the stock market, the experts say, are economic fundamentals.
"History has shown that the economy is going to do what the economy is going to do," said Scott Carmack, co-portfolio manager at Leader Capital in Portland, Ore. "And politics don't create some sort of disaster."
Regardless of what happens, the "fiscal cliff" — sweeping tax increases and government spending cuts set to take effect Jan. 1 — is going to dominate the headlines and the market for the next week.
What's going to happen in the stock market between now and the budget deadline of Dec. 31?
The market hates uncertainty. If there's no deal, expect stocks to fall.
"We always knew we were going to get some volatility here," Carmack said. "Depending on leaders in Washington to come to some kind of agreement is like pulling teeth."
Besides, there are other incentives for people to pull money out of the market. Some professional investors are selling to lock in gains for the year. Others are selling because investments could be taxed at higher rates next year.
"It's been a pretty good year in the market," said Peter Tuz, co-manager of the Chase Growth and Chase Mid Cap Growth mutual funds in Charlottesville, Va. The Standard & Poor's 500 index is up more than 13% in 2012.
"People might look at that uncertainty and say, 'I'm happy with that, and now I'll take some money aside, and sell,'" he said.
What about after Jan. 1?
Deal or no deal, many investors don't expect the effects of the fiscal impasse to linger in the stock market for too long.
One big reason is that everyone has seen it coming for months.
"We're not overly concerned," said David Hefty, chief executive of Hefty Wealth Partners in Auburn, Ind. "The thing to keep in mind is that what hurts investors, what hurts the market, are things that are unexpected."
He added: "Everybody has 2008 burned into their minds. They think the 'fiscal cliff' will be the next 2008 event. A 2008 event is when nobody sees it coming, and everyone is blindsided. Nobody's going to be blindsided by this."
Hefty said he'd watch whether the Federal Reserve continues its policy of pumping money into the economy, and fundamentals such as housing and unemployment, to decide how to invest in 2013.
"We're looking at two key things that matter the most," he said. "The 'fiscal cliff' isn't one of them."
Donald Quigley, co-manager of the Artio Total Return Bond mutual fund, is more wary of the political effects than the economic effects. If Republicans and Democrats can't reach a compromise, he said, the world could take that as a sign that the United States government is dysfunctional.
How will going off the 'fiscal cliff' affect the U.S.?
This article
How will going off the 'fiscal cliff' affect the U.S.?
can be opened in url
http://theclubenews.blogspot.com/2012/12/how-will-going-off-cliff-affect-us.html?m=0
How will going off the 'fiscal cliff' affect the U.S.?
